A post-mortem on the presidential election

It’s been two weeks since the election and I am still shell-shocked. Alas, I bought into the hyperbole that Morris and other right-leaning pundits were spewing – namely, that Romney was going to win, if not convincingly then at least comfortably. In retrospect, that faulty prognosis was predicated on three premises: the massive 2008 turnout by Obama’s legions (blacks, Hispanics, single women, young voters) would not be repeated; America was fed up with Obama’s Keynesian economic policies that had resulted in the weakest economic recovery in 75 years; and conservatives and independents were so energized that their support would more than compensate for Obama’s legions. The first premise was certainly false. The second, even if true, discounted the fact that Obama’s legions didn’t care. And while there was some truth to the third, the groundswell was confined to a demographic that we now recognize is rapidly being eclipsed by its complement.

Prior to November 6, many – including yours truly – wrote that this was an election for the soul of America. The presumption was that the century-long leftward slide of American society had reached the stage at which another four years of Obama’s statist agenda would surely drive the country past the tipping point. By this it was meant that it would become literally impossible to restore America to its moorings as a constitutional republic based on individual liberty, traditional moral principles and free market capitalism. Those who subscribe to this thesis must now decide if it is truly valid.

There is much compelling evidence to support it. One piece is the aforementioned demographic. The groups who support Obama’s collectivist philosophy are growing percentagewise, while those who oppose it are shrinking. Another piece of evidence is the almost complete control that the Left exercises on the opinion-molding organs of American society. The media is the most glaring example; but the statists also control US education—both higher and lower, foundations, libraries, seminaries, museums and the like. Next, the length of time that the Left has been in control has enabled a shift in the political center of gravity of the nation so far to the left that radical leftists look mainstream and mainstream conservatives appear radical right.

But these political/philosophical reasons are complemented by sobering economic/social evidence:

• We lack the will to deal with our gargantuan national debt, which is certain to bring about a severe economic crisis.
• Our Ponzi scheme-style entitlement programs are on an unsustainable path to calamity – and again, we lack the will to repair them.
• Our military is in the process of a drastic drawdown – necessitated in part by the fiscal consequences of the last two bullets – and we are slowly (or perhaps not so slowly) losing the ability to project power, defend our allies or protect the homeland.
• Our nation is increasingly secular, which results in a culture of abortion on demand, pornography, same-sex marriage, a skyrocketing rate of illegitimacy and other manifestations of social decay.

I could go on, but you get the idea. And yet. And yet! Surely our beloved country was in even greater danger (although perhaps of different types) during the Revolution, at the time of the Civil War, while enduring the Great Depression, and when confronted by the monstrous 20^th century evils of Nazism and Communism. At the height of these crises, there were those who predicted the demise of America. But it did not happen.

In short, my head tells me that America’s goose is cooked; but my heart refuses to accept that gloomy assessment. For sure, Obama will toss more statist bombs in our laps in the next four years: cap and trade again, maybe Card Check, an indeterminate number of ultra-left Supreme Court Justices, full implementation of Obamacare and Dodd-Frank and out of control regulatory agencies. But we survived eight years of Wilson, 20 years of Roosevelt-Truman, five years of Johnson and four years of Carter. Surely we can survive eight years of Obama. In fact, the doomsayers would assert that we did not actually survive all of Obama’s leftist predecessors. They set the table that Obama is running to radically alter the US into a Euro-style social welfare state, sans exceptionalism, sans freedom and sans prosperity.

So one must decide; does one follow one’s head or one’s heart? Based on that decision, what does one do? If the former, then the choices are clear. It seems to me that there are four: (i) enjoy the ride for however much longer it lasts and if it ends before you do, then try to adjust as best you can to the grim reality that awaits us; (ii) continue to fight, as hard as you can, knowing full well that it is a Don Quixote-like doomed struggle, but you would rather ‘die fighting than surrender’; (iii) emigrate; (iv) retreat to local enclaves (certain towns and rural communities, counties, even a few states) where it may be possible to preserve what is historically great about America, and maintain the enclaves until they are swamped or miraculously conjoined with others to carve out a new nation from the ashes to which the leftists are leading us.

If, on the other hand, the heart wins, then the struggle continues with a belief that victory is still possible. Perhaps Obama will screw it up so badly that substantial members of his contingents will have a change of heart. Perhaps as yet unforeseen trends or developments will reverse the demographic calamity previously identified. Perhaps there will occur a moral revival in America (as has happened in the past) that will sweep the leftists from power and restore the nation. Perhaps true conservatives will take over the Republican Party – exactly as hard core leftists have completely captured the Democratic Party – and with a clear vision lead America to resurgence. Perhaps conservatives will finally realize that culture trumps politics and conduct a successful guerilla campaign to recapture all those opinion-forming organs of society that the lefties now control. Perhaps!

So, dear reader, which organ has triumphed in your body – your head or your heart? As soon as I figure out the answer for myself, I will let you know.

According to all the pundits, the forthcoming presidential election will be one of the closest in US history. The candidates are virtually tied in all the national polls. Moreover, when specialized polls are taken – whether by state, issue or voting demographic – the advantages of either candidate in certain areas are counterbalanced by those of his opponent in the remaining areas. We are led to believe that it is impossible to predict the outcome and that it may well come down to which of the parties has in place the stronger ‘ground game’ (to get their supporters to the voting booths).

Now all of this is great political theater and certainly wonderful for TV viewership and newspaper/magazine readership. And while historically, the polls give a generally good indication of what a presidential election portends, they are far from foolproof in their predictive accuracy. They did not forecast the 1980 Reagan landslide, and they did not foretell the agonizingly close and nebulous outcome of the 2000 Bush-Gore contest. I have a feeling that the election next week will not be as close as the forecasters are predicting. There are in fact a few prognosticators who have predicted a Romney landslide; and although no Obama supporters are predicting a romp for their candidate equivalent to the stomping of McCain, there are some who believe that the President will win comfortably. The uncertainty is in part what makes it all so interesting.

But all of that overlooks the fact that this election represents a contest for the soul of America. It has become common to hear that this is the most important presidential election in a generation, perhaps in several generations. I believe it is much more than that – it is an election which will determine the ultimate fate of our nation. It is so much more than which pundit or poll has the best crystal ball. It will determine whether America restores itself to its historical role in the world or whether it continues down its seemingly inexorable slide from a constitutional republic of limited government, individual liberty and unbounded economic prosperity into just another statist, social welfare state of stagnation, serfdom and secularism.

The country has been leaning strongly to port since the dawn of the twentieth century. There have been brief interruptions (during the 20s under Coolidge, 80s under Reagan, and even more briefly in the 90s under Gingrich), but these right turns have been easily overmatched by sharp lurches to the left under Wilson, FDR, Johnson and now Obama. We have reached the tipping point, beyond which it will be impossible to restore America to its founding principles. If Obama is re-elected, the tipping point will surely be passed in the next four years and the glorious American experiment will draw to a close.

It is possible – even likely – that Romney is not the savior who will reverse this horrible slide. But he might be. Moreover, if he fails to unseat Obama, then we are domed for sure. If on the other hand, Romney can prevail, we have a chance – if not via Romney himself, then at least he buys us some time until the true savior emerges.

As obvious as it was in 1980 that Jimmy Carter needed to be ejected from the White House, it is even more plain today that the redistributionist, blame America, crony capitalist-loving statist who is currently in the Oval Office must be expelled. He presents a mortal threat to the continued existence of our country as a constitutionally ordained, federal republic that is committed to individual liberty, free markets, natural rights and American exceptionalism. We have been chipping away at these principles for decades. Obama has accelerated the process toward the tipping point – if we haven’t passed it already. And if we haven’t, we surely shall during a catastrophic second term.

Paraphrasing the Declaration of Independence: The history of the present President of the United States is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute tyranny over these states. To prove this, let facts be submitted to a candid world.

·        Obama has exploded the federal deficit and the national debt far beyond reasonable limits. The latter poses an existential fiscal threat to the Republic.

·        He has drastically expanded the scope of the federal government and shamelessly increased the number of citizens who are dependent upon it.

·        His administration is contemptuous of the law. The extra-legal activities of his Justice Department, the EPA and various ‘czars’ are complemented by his own illegal actions such as making recess appointments when Congress is not in recess and subverting the legislative intent of the bipartisan Welfare Reform Act of 1996.

·        He rammed through Congress, by legally dubious means, a radical health care ‘reform’ bill that was opposed by two-thirds of the public, supported by no member of the opposition and rendered legitimate only by the contorted reasoning of a cowardly Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. Obamacare will raise taxes, severely diminish the quality of America health care, put numerous doctors and hospitals out of business and – unless the death panels really work as some fear – cause federal and State spending on health care to balloon.

·        He has multiplied exponentially the number and complexity of federal regulations, all of which are strangling business, crippling the economy and converting ordinary citizens into law-breakers.

·        He has birthed Dodd-Frank, an even worse business-killer than Sarbanes-Oxley.

·        He bows to foreign leaders, defers to enemies, backstabs allies and engages in unreciprocated, unilateral military disarmament.

·        His obsessive promotion of ‘clean energy’ moves us further away from energy independence, exactly at the time when newly discovered domestic energy resources could provide that independence.

·        He denigrates our country by disavowing its exceptionalism.

·        He surrounds himself with radical leftists like Valerie Jarrett and David Axelrod (who are actually less egregious than his pre-election companions) and accepts no advice from any other sources.

·        He appoints radicals to the Supreme Court.

·        He divides the body politic with irresponsible class warfare rhetoric.

·        He seeks amnesty for illegal aliens, refuses to secure the border and sues those States that try to enforce US immigration law.

·        He boosts the fortunes of public sector unions despite the now undisputed proof that they are chiefly responsible for the looming bankruptcy of countless localities and many States in the Union.

His main claim for reelection is based on three assertions: Osama is dead, GM is alive and Mitt Romney is a heartless wretch who will reinstate the policies of George W Bush that are responsible for the fiscal calamity that Obama inherited. The last claim, even if it were true, ignores his own pitiful record. Furthermore, all three claims are of dubious truth or merit. Yes, he gave the order to take out Osama – although much evidence points to the fact that he did so reluctantly – but the events of the last few months prove that the war that Osama ignited against the US remains alive and well. Yes, GM is alive –although it’s not so clear how well – but if it had been allowed to file for bankruptcy in the normal fashion, the process might have yielded a much stronger entity than the current Government Motors. And, while it is true that George W Bush’s profligate spending and pseudo-conservatism bear some blame for the country’s fiscal mess, Romney’s policies are more Reaganesque than they are Bush-like. Besides, Obama has actually doubled down on exactly on those aspects of Bush’s policies that were most damaging.

With such a record of unmitigated failure, it seems self evident that the American people will rid themselves of this disaster come November. Romney may not be overly charismatic, or have the wonderful smile that Obama has, but he is clearly competent, experienced, understands the nature of the fallacious policies that Obama has pursued and has clear ideas on how to reorient the nation in the correct direction. So how can the race be tied? With Obama edging into the lead according to many polls? Why isn’t Romney ahead by 20 points? Why indeed?

I believe the reasons are fourfold:

1.      Romney. There is a compelling analogy between the 1980 campaign and the current one. Carter’s record was abysmal and the public’s dissatisfaction with him was tremendous.  Yet Carter remained ahead in the polls until fairly late in the campaign. People are normally inclined to stay with the beast they know – even if he is a disaster; unless and until the projected replacement reassures them that he is up to the job. In fact, there was a moment when huge numbers of people reached the conclusion that Reagan could indeed be trusted with the presidency. It seems to have happened during the debates. So far, Romney has not had that magic moment at which large numbers of undecided voters and disappointed Obama supporters come to the conclusion that Romney should be entrusted with the office.

Furthermore, Romney has not run a particularly inspired campaign. Although his unexpected pick of Paul Ryan suggests that he is more conservative than many thought, he has not been able to establish to the public’s satisfaction whether he is a Reagan conservative or a Bush-McCain-Dole moderate. It’s not clear whether he knows himself. Clearly the GOP worries that the only undecided voters left out there lie in the center and so regardless of where Romney really stands, the conventional wisdom is that he must tone down the Tea Party-like rhetoric and tack to the middle. Yes, Obama was able to fool many voters that he was a centrist and not the hard-core leftist ideologue that he in fact is. But Obama is a much better liar than Romney. Romney would be better served to establish unquestionably what his political philosophy is and then promote and defend it fiercely.

2.      Obama. He is arguably the worst president we have ever had. But as a politician and campaigner there is no gainsaying his talents. He is charming, has a great smile, gives glib speeches and exudes cool, and of course he represents a huge step forward for the nation in exorcising its racial demons from its past. He is playing on all that. He may be destroying the nation, but much of the country seems to be hypnotized by his charm. While it is true that Obama’s near total lack of any relevant experience rendered him the least qualified candidate ever to assume the presidency, and while it is – and was – obviously clear that his basic philosophy is hard left, the public seems more impressed by his toothy grin than by his shallow and mysterious résumé. Finally, he and his henchmen in the Democratic Party are without moral principles. They can spin any mistake, demagogue any issue, demonize any opponent. He/they can get away with it because…

3.      It’s not a fair fight. By this I refer to the fact that the mainstream media is in the pocket of the Democratic Party. This indisputable fact has been true for a while. But the mainstream media is so transparently and overwhelmingly biased in favor of Obama over Romney that they don’t even pretend it isn’t so any longer. This gives Obama a huge advantage in the struggle. Reagan found a way to go around his enemies in the media and make his case directly to the people. Romney has not discovered that magic path.

4.      The progressive assault. The main reason that the failure, Barack Obama, might be reelected lies, I believe, in the altered character of the American people. For a century, and especially in the last 40 years, the people have been subjected to a one-sided presentation – sometimes overt, but more often subtle – that borders on brainwashing. The people are programmed to believe that the Founders’ principles were bigoted, racist, anti-women, homophobic, slanted to the benefit of the wealthy, xenophobic in their view of America’s place in the world, prejudiced in favor of Christianity, and certainly outdated now more than two centuries after their conception. Those principles must be replaced by more egalitarian, multicultural, ecumenical principles focused more on collective security than individual liberty, environmental concerns rather than entrepreneurial excesses, and world order rather than American exceptionalism.