An examination of how, unexpectedly, Rick Santorum became the last threat to Mitt Romney’s acquisition of the Republican presidential nomination

In a previous post in this blog in November, 2011, the process of selecting a Republican presidential candidate to oppose Barack Obama was described as a combination of American Idol and Whack-a-Mole. The contestants compete in preliminary popularity rounds and the people vote via opinion polls. The last idol standing will be the nominee. But during the process, different candidates pop their heads out of their holes, only to be whacked back down by the media. It’s enough to make one pine for smoke-filled rooms.

The “mole” who poked his head out of his hole in November was Newt Gingrich. In fact, at the time, Newt looked to be the last non-Romney mole. But Newt was not only whacked back into his hole by the media; he was literally bludgeoned down into it by a surprisingly vicious and remarkably effective attack by Romney and his Super PAC.

According to the narrative in the article, that should have been the end of the nomination story. Previously whacked moles (Pawlenty, Cain, Bachmann, Perry) had been erased from the chase and the other moles (Paul, Santorum, Huntsman, Johnson) were deemed to be of such minor importance that they could be safely ignored. The latter assessment turned out to be accurate for Huntsman and Johnson, and in the end for Paul also – but somehow, in a development that was unforeseen, and as yet unexplained, Rick Santorum morphed into a viable mole and now represents the only meaningful challenger to Romney. How did this come about? Can Santorum really defeat Romney? And if so, what does it portend for a Santorum-Obama contest?

Most pundits did not foresee the emergence of Santorum as a major candidate for the GOP nomination. The fact that he was slaughtered in a swing state (Pennsylvania) in his last Senate run seemed enough to disqualify him from serious consideration. But on top of that there were: his whiny personality; his betrayal of the bona fide conservative Toomey in favor of the turncoat Specter; his undistinguished record in the Senate; his lack of executive experience; and his views on social issues – which, while perhaps more mainstream than portrayed by the media, were often stated in an extreme fashion that made him anathema to moderate voters. His placement at the end of the line in candidate debates seemed appropriate and it was expected that he would disappear from the scene in short order.

But he didn’t. Why? Here are five reasons:

1. Santorum had the accidental good fortune to be hidden from – and therefore immune to – the mudslinging by his fellow candidates. While Romney was bashing Gingrich, and Perry was trashing Romney and everyone was marginalizing Paul, no one was paying any attention to poor Rick. So while he was not gaining any traction, he was also not driven from the race. Huntsman and Johnson were similarly ignored. But Johnson was never a serious candidate. And his views were already covered by the better known Paul. Huntsman might have considered himself a serious candidate, but virtually no one else did. His social views were far too liberal, his financial acumen was eclipsed by Romney’s and the taint of working for Obama rendered him totally unacceptable.
2. Santorum was ignored not only by his fellow candidates, but also by the media. The mainstream media concentrated on diminishing anyone that it feared might pose a threat to Obama (including Romney, Gingrich, Perry and, to a lesser extent, Cain and Bachmann). But the media didn’t see Santorum as a cause for worry (because he clearly could not get the nomination), so they ignored him. Again, this did nothing to promote Rick’s candidacy, but it also did nothing to scuttle it.
3. Santorum benefitted from the fact that the overall field was weak. Individuals that many thought might make the most formidable candidates (Paul Ryan, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Haley Barbour, and even Donald Trump or Sarah Palin or General Petraeus) chose not to run. What remained was considered a not terribly distinguished field. Thus Santorum did not suffer by comparison.
4. The leading candidate could not close the deal. This notion has been well covered – Mitt Romney did not generate much enthusiasm among hardcore conservatives. Therefore, despite his money and organization, he was not able to run away with the nomination. This left the door open for others, like Santorum, to hang around.
5. Two new features of the nomination process helped Santorum: (i) proportional selection of delegates – which guaranteed a protracted contest; and (ii) the existence of Super PACs, which enabled a small number of wealthy donors to keep a candidacy afloat.

Even though the overall field was weak, there were three – perhaps four – candidates with the requisite credentials that should have banished Santorum to the sidelines long ago: Romney, Perry, Pawlenty and perhaps Gingrich. The first three had robust executive experience, a successful record as such, adequate backing and a reasonable personality. Gingrich is less well-endowed with these qualities, but as the debates revealed, he exhibits exceptional intelligence and creativity. However, Gingrich is also undisciplined and quixotic. Furthermore, Perry’s performance at the debates was so horrible that he completely disqualified himself; and Pawlenty didn’t do much better as he came across as small-minded and mean-spirited. It’s not surprising that Cain and Bachmann are gone – they were not serious candidates, and although each had a brief moment in the sun, neither had a path to the nomination. Paul, who represents the roughly 10% (perhaps less) of the electorate that is libertarian, is trolling for delegates in the hope of having some influence on the nominee and/or platform at the convention. His marginalization is appropriate. And as for Romney, just about everything has been said about his inability to quickly seal the deal – for reasons that are well known.

So the GOP is left with the last non-Romney – whiny, unaccomplished Rick Santorum. He has no executive experience, a less than endearing personality, no sterling political accomplishments in his résumé and is easily painted as an extreme social conservative. Romney will probably eventually prevail – his Illinois victory this week is more of a harbinger than Santorum’s two southern victories last week. But if Rick somehow does manage to secure the nomination, it will be a calamity – for the GOP and for the nation. Not only will he lose to Obama, he could jeopardize GOP control of the House and enable a filibuster-proof Democratic majority in the Senate. A second administration with the same parameters as in Obama’s first two years could have dire consequences for America: skyrocketing taxes and spending, Greece-like deficits and debt, Obamacare fully implemented, Cap & Trade, and so much more – gigantic steps toward converting America from a freedom-loving republic into a collectivist, Euro welfare state, impotent in foreign affairs and slavishly dependent on an increasingly tyrannical federal government at home.